The Tariff Is 30% and Knowable — That's Your Window
TL;DR
- ▸The extra US tariff on Chinese imports is 30% right now (20% fentanyl + 10% reciprocal) — painful but plannable.
- ▸The real risk is the open Section 301 reviews across 15+ partners — the number could move again with little notice.
- ▸Freight is still moderate but carrier-managed (blank sailings); the soft booking window narrows as summer front-loading starts.
By the Numbers
current extra US tariff on Chinese goods
20% fentanyl + 10% reciprocal · on top of ~3.2% base duty on wooden kitchenware · Section 301 reviews still open
Here's the part most importers get wrong about tariffs right now: the danger isn't the rate you're paying today — it's that today's rate is the known number, and the unknown one is sitting in a queue. The extra US tariff on Chinese goods is currently 30% (a 20% "fentanyl" tariff plus a 10% "reciprocal" tariff), stacked on top of the normal ~3.2% duty on wooden kitchenware. That's painful but plannable. The wildcard is the batch of Section 301 reviews still open across more than a dozen trading partners — any of which could move the number again with little notice.
Why "known cost" is actually good news. When the tariff is fixed, you can build it into your price with confidence: take your FOB, add the ~3.2% duty and the 30% tariff, add freight, and you have a landed cost you can quote a retailer against for the season. Buyers who lock orders during a known-cost window aren't gambling on the next announcement — they've already priced it in. The ones who wait are betting the number won't go up, and the open Section 301 reviews are exactly the kind of thing that makes that bet risky.
Freight is telling the same story. Ocean rates from China are still moderate by recent standards — roughly $1,850–2,400 per 40-ft container to the US West Coast and $2,800–3,500 to the East Coast — but that calm is partly engineered: carriers are running "blank sailings" (cancelled departures) to hold capacity tight and keep rates from falling, even as China-to-US volumes run about 30% below last year. As summer front-loading kicks in ahead of peak season, the soft window for booking space narrows.
So the play for the next few weeks is simple: calculate your true landed cost now, and lock your Q3–Q4 wooden-product orders while both the tariff and the freight rate are known quantities. Confirm your HS code with your broker (most wooden kitchenware sits in 4419), get the exact duty + tariff stack in writing, and don't let an order that's ready-to-go sit waiting for a headline. The detailed numbers and checklist are in the cards below.
Outside Signal
Tariffs are a known 30% — but the next number is in a queue
The extra US tariff on Chinese goods currently totals 30% (a 20% fentanyl tariff plus a 10% reciprocal tariff), on top of the normal duty. That rate is fixed for now, but USTR has open Section 301 investigations covering more than a dozen trading partners including China, so the figure is not settled. Meanwhile China-to-US container volumes are running roughly 30% below last year as importers wait out the uncertainty, and carriers are using blank sailings to keep trans-Pacific rates from sliding — about $1,850-2,400 per 40-ft box to the US West Coast and $2,800-3,500 to the East Coast as of spring 2026.
From the Floor
Buyers are asking for landed cost, not FOB
The question on our quote desk this month shifted from 'what's your FOB?' to 'what does this actually land at?' Our wooden-product FOBs are stable — material and labour haven't moved much — so the entire swing a buyer feels is tariff plus freight. We're telling brands the same thing: lock the order while the tariff is a known 30% and freight is pre-peak. A board at $6.90 FOB lands near $9 today; that's a number you can quote a retailer on. Waiting for a 'better' tariff is not a sourcing strategy.
What to Do This Week
- □Calculate your true landed cost now: FOB + ~3.2% duty + 30% tariff + freight — quote your retailer against that, not the FOB.
- □Lock your Q3-Q4 wooden-product orders during this known-cost window instead of waiting for the next tariff headline.
- □Confirm your HS code with your customs broker (most wooden kitchenware is 4419) so the duty + tariff stack is correct in writing.
- □Book ocean space early — carriers are tightening capacity with blank sailings ahead of summer peak.
Next Week
Vol. 04 will break down the FOB → landed-cost math line by line for a wooden cutting board and a gift box, so you can build a tariff-proof retail price.
Get a Q4 quote →Quick Questions
Will the tariff on my wooden product go up?+
Nobody can promise either way — that's the point. The rate is a known 30% today, but Section 301 reviews are open across 15+ partners including China, so it could change. Locking orders now prices in today's known cost instead of betting on the next announcement.
How do I work out the real landed cost?+
Start from FOB, add the base duty (~3.2% for most wooden kitchenware under HS 4419), add the current 30% tariff, then add freight and last-mile. Confirm the HS code with your broker so the stack is right. We can share a worked example for your specific product.
Should I really front-load orders now?+
If the product is destined for Q3-Q4, yes — book while the tariff is known and freight is still pre-peak. Carriers are using blank sailings to keep rates firm, and space tightens as summer front-loading begins. MOQ from 500 pcs, sampling 7-10 days, production 25-30 days.